• Jakarta 2020: Will We Cope?

Scenario 2020

Today’s concerns on mobility, space for living, energy conservation, waste and water management are just the beginning. Deeper systemic issues lie ahead for the megacity of Jakarta. Time is running short.

Within a decade Jabodetabekjur (Jakarta-Bogor-Depok-Tangerang-Bekasi-Cianjur) will swell to 30 million inhabitants, requiring a minimum of over 2 million housing units. Rapid suburban growth will boost the daily commute to a level of 50 million journeys. The resulting vehicle traffic will have a significant impact on air quality and the associated risks of infection from increased airborne disease. The pressure on groundwater resources, waste and sewerage in the inner city areas will escalate as more families choose high-rise living. As parts of the city continue to sink, incursions by the Java sea and swollen rivers have already caused widespread flooding. Highway access to the national airport was recently raised several meters after the entire facility was cut off by storm surges.

Coping with the number of citizens is just one dimension for future consideration. Progress in Indonesia’s resource rich and dynamic economy inevitably will lead to a welcome improvement in buying power. Needs and expectations will change with rising disposable incomes; higher spending among a more diverse group, including a larger retired community; and a decreasing mortality rate. Rising living standards will inevitably heighten demand for electricity. Today’s investment programmes to deliver infrastructure improvements, will pale in comparison with the needs in 2020.